COSPAR-21-PSW.1

Quantitative Assessment of Current and Emerging    Space Weather Modelling Capabilities for Improved Space Weather  Services

Block 1 Discussion: https://youtu.be/vNLDJbQLCFA

Block 2 Discussion: https://youtu.be/FkrmzrxnUw0

Within the space weather community, prototype services frequently operate as capability demonstrators and a full verification of their ability to reproduce/predict elements of the space environment under a range of space weather conditions, from the moderate to the extreme, has yet to be completed. In addition, as new modelling capabilities emerge, information on the operational use case for a given model can provide valuable information to the developer, facilitating transition from the research domain into operations at a later stage.
Underpinning model accuracy is being addressed by numerous international activities, but as yet a community-wide consensus on how to address accuracy and suitability for transition into operations for the wide range of models and domains involved has not been reached.

This event builds on the successful related event held during the 42nd COSPAR Scientific Assembly. It encourages dialogue between modellers, application developers and service providers in order to review current model and service validation activities, to build upon successes, to identify challenges, and to develop a strategy, supported by actions, for continuous assessment of space weather predictive capabilities as recommended in the COSPAR Space Weather Roadmap. Presentations from International Space Weather Action Teams focusing on capability assessments are encouraged as are all presentations addressing both coordinated validation frameworks and individual case studies.
This event will also include a discussion panel focussing on techniques to characterise progress towards operational readiness and on enabling feedback from operations to the research domain.

  • MSO: Alexi Glovar, European Space Agency, Germany,  alexi.glover@esa.int
  • DO: Masha Kuznesova, NASA/NSF CCMC, maria.m.kuznetsova@nasa.gov

Full Presentations

  • Chairs:     Masha Kuznetsova, Joe Minow                Tue, Feb 2, 2021, 08:00-09:30 AEDT (Block 1)
  • Chairs:     Alexi Glover,  Piers Jiggens                       Tue, Feb 2, 2021, 19:00-20:30 AEDT (Block 2)
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  • Space Weather Application for Australia’s Power   Industry
  • Richard Marshall; Young, Jeanne; Kelly,  Andrew
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZXNPaCU1PE&feature=youtu.be
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  • Value of forecast:  forecast verification in user’s  perspective
  • Yuki Kubo,  Nishizuka, Naoto; Ishii, Mamoru
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tuqJAKgh6JA&feature=youtu.be
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  • Improving Operational Space Weather Services in the African   region
  • Lee-Anne  McKinnell; Tshisaphungo, Mpho; Nndanganeni, Rendani Rejoyce; Matamba, Tshimangadzo Merline; Cilliers, Pierre; Witten, Justin
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NHy9yGqTpW8&feature=youtu.be
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  • Solar Energetic Particle Model Validation and  the  Space  Radiation  Operational  Perspective
  • Kathryn Whitman; Bain, Hazel M.; Mays, M. Leila; Richardson, Ian G.; Quinn, Philip; Semones, Edward J.; Lee, Kerry; Barzilla, Janet; Johnson, Steve A.; Asfaw, Tilaye
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f29u25gtpiI&feature=youtu.be
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  • SafeSpace: Designing  Radiation  Belt  Environmental  Indicators  for  the  safety  of  space  assets,
  • Ioannis  Daglis A.; Bourdarie, Sebastien; Poedts, Stefaan; Santolik, Ondrej; Darrouzet, Fabien; Cueto Rodriguez, Juan; Lavraud, Benoit; Sandberg, Ingmar Team: SafeSpace
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NzmZHsXoJU&feature=youtu.be
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  • Assessing Space Weather Prediction Using  the  Enhanced  Model  Evaluation  Tools  (METplus)
  • Tara Jensen,  Vigh, Jonathan; Brown, Barbara; Onsager, Terrance; Maruyama, Naomi; Fuller-Rowell, Dominic; Mays, M. Leila; Rastaetter, Lutz; Wang, Jun
  • NCAR MET Tools: 
  • http://www.dtcenter.org/community-code/model-evaluation-tools-met
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2JiGpiu6iDY
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  • SOLSTICE: Space Weather Modeling Meets Machine Learning
  • Tamas Gombosi,  Team: SOLSTICE
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBgeWfAVYPA&feature=youtu.be
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  • Bounding-Case Radiation Environment Model for Short  Missions
  • James Adams,  Hu, Shaowen; Robinson, Zachary; Semones, Edward 
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dm4r5TTssG0&feature=youtu.be
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  • Chairs:    Brett Carter, Masha Kuznetsova                  Tue Feb 2, 2021, 09:30-11:00 AEDT (Block 1)
  • Chairs:    Suzy Bingham, Alexi Glover                        Tue, Feb 2, 2021, 20:30-22:00 AEDT (Block 2)
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  • Data Benchmarking for Solar Flare, CME and SEP Event Forecasting: Different Prediction and Verification Needs, Unified
  • Manolis  Georgoulis, K.; Aydin, Berkay; Ahmadzadeh, Azim; Kempton, Dustin J.; Angryk, Rafal A.; Martens, Petrus
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o07yq9QRiJs&feature=youtu.be
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  • Modeling Coronal Mass Ejections with  EUHFORIA
  • Christine  Verbeke; Scolini, Camilla; Hinterreiter, Jürgen; Magdalenic, Jasmina; Samara, Evangelia; Temmer, Manuela; Pomoell, Jens; Asvestari, Eleanna; Rodriguez, Luciano; Poedts, Stefaan; Heinemann, Stephan; Schmieder, Brigitte
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ma9dIB453Y&feature=youtu.be
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  • Model Performance Assessment within the Heliospheric Weather  Expert Service   Centre
  • David Barnes
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DBCYsGfrC8s&feature=youtu.be
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  • Near-Earth Radiation and Plasma Environment Community Approach to Model Validation Regarding Impacts  on  (Aero)space Assets
  • Yihua Zheng; Ganushkina, Natalia; Jiggens, Piers; Jordanova, Vania; Jun, Insoo; Meier, Matthias M.; Mann, Ian; Minow, Joseph; O’Brien, Paul; Pitchford, Dave; Shprits, Yuri; Tobiska, W Kent; Xapsos, Michael; Rastaetter, Lutz; Kuznetsova, Maria
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9jF76f6_-o&feature=youtu.be
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  • Using the Application Usability Levels framework to inform and track progress in ionospheric scintillation forecast research
  • Brett Carter; Currie, Julie; Dao, Tam; Yizengaw, Endawoke; Terkildsen, Michael;  Retterer,  John;  Groves, Keith; Caton, Ron; Halford, Alexa; Kellerman,   Adam
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IJs-poNJwE&feature=youtu.be
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  • Examples of model validation approaches in the SSA Space Weather Service Network
  • Claudia Borries; Tsagouri, Ioanna; Dierckxsens, Mark; Perry, Chris; Glover, Alexi; Cid, Consuelo; Moretto, Therese
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBpxd74Xvi0&feature=youtu.be
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  • The COSPAR ISWAT initiative for open validation analysis for models of the evolving ambient solar wind
  • Martin Reiss, Temmer, Manuela; Wiegand, Chiu; Mullinix, Richard; Kuznetsova, Maria; MacNeice, Peter; Rastaetter, Lutz; Muglach, Karin Team: COSPAR ISWAT H1-01
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rBqjEKsZ_28
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