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Team title: Thermosphere Model Assessment and Improvement

Team ID: G2A-01

Team Leads:

Sean Bruinsma (CNES, Toulouse, France),

Keywords (impact): Satellite/debris drag

Keywords (activity type): Modeling, Data Utilization , Assessment


The DTM model, one of the CIRA and ISO thermosphere models, is developed and maintained at CNES. The assessment of all CIRA models, in more and more detail as well as more comprehensive, and as new datasets become available, is and ongoing activity in order to quantify progress from one DTM version to the next. Analysis and comparisons with density data, in part computed in-house, allows identification of model strengths and weaknesses, establishing error budgets, and finally model improvement after ingestion.


- Model assessments according to pertinent metrics, using selected datasets, in particular for geomagnetic storms, for the three CIRA models (NRLMSISE-00, JB2008 and DTM2013 and next versions). A new metric for model assessment under storm condition must first be developed.
- Density data derivation by means of precise orbit computation, validation of the in-house derived as well as external density datasets.
- Analysis of variations in density data, e.g. due to gravity waves, large scale traveling atmospheric disturbances, solar activity, etc.

Action topics:

  • Analysis, modeling, and prediction of neutral density variations and changes in composition in the thermosphere at all spatial and temporal scales ,
  • Assessment of thermosphere neutral density modeling capability and tracing progress over time,
  • Maintaining and augmenting the thermosphere density database.



Bruinsma, S., Siemes, C., Emmert, J.T., Mlynczak, M.G. (2022) Description and comparison of 21st century thermosphere data, Adv. Space Res.,

Bruinsma, S., C. Boniface, E. Sutton, M. Fedrizzi (2021) Thermosphere Modeling Capabilities Assessment: Geomagnetic Storms, J. Space Weather Space Clim., https:/

Bruinsma, S., E. Sutton, S.C. Solomon, T. Fuller-Rowell, M. Fedrizzi (2018) Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment:  Neutral Density and Orbit Determination at LEO, Space Weather,