S1: Long-term Solar Variability

S1: Long-term Solar Variability (solar cycle and beyond)

Moderator:

Alexei Pevtsov (National Solar Observatory, USA), apevtsov@nso.edu

Co-Moderators:

Dibyendu Nandi (CESSI/IISER Kolkata, India), dnandi AT iiserkol.ac.in

Ilya Usoskin (University of Oulu, Finland), ilya.usoskin@oulu.fi

Impact:

Driver of long term space environment variability in heliosphere, geospace and other planets.

Climate.

Introduction:

The Sun’s dynamic activity is manifested across multiple timescales that are relevant for forcing of the near-Earth space environment and planetary atmospheres and climate. The solar magnetic cycle and its variability modulate magnetic, radiative and particulate fluxes over long-term and determine the frequency of space weather events such as flares and CMEs. Knowledge of past solar variability observed and recorded through various parameters, including historical space weather events inform us about the range of possible solar fluctuations.

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Developing predictive computational models of solar activity enable advance space weather preparedness.

The COSPAR-ILWS Space Weather Roadmap touched upon the need to decipher long-term solar variability, including (past) extreme events, and assess their impact on planetary atmospheres. The Roadmap also made the following recommendation which is relevant in the context of predictive models of the solar cycle:

“Develop settings to transition research tools to operations. Establish collaborative activities to host, evaluate, and compare numerical models (looking at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center [CCMC] and the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation [JCSDA] as examples, setup, staffed appropriately from research and user communities) and to assess quantitatively their skill at forecasting/specifying parameters of high operational value. Determine the suitability of research models for use in a space weather service center. Foster continuous improvement in operational capabilities by identifying the performance gaps in research and operational models and by encouraging development in high priority areas.”

Objectives:

The goals of this cluster are to reconstruct and constrain past solar activity, extreme space weather episodes (if possible, their impacts), help assess predictive models of solar activity ranging from solar dynamo models, solar surface flux transport models to coronal and heliospheric field evolution models and transition validated data driven computational models to operational space weather (and climate) forecasting tools.

Essential Space Environment Quantities (ESEQ) / Forecasting Goals:

For list of ESEQ please click "Read more":

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Historical sunspot number time series (reconstructed and observed)
Solar spectral irradiance time series (reconstructed and observed)
Solar open flux time series
Historical solar wind time series (reconstructed)
Predicted magnetic flux and sunspot number time series
Predicted solar irradiance time series
Extreme solar events

,Action topics:

For list of action topics please click "Read more":

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Solar activity indices for constraining long-term variability
Extreme space weather events and their impacts
Solar irradiance. Open flux and solar wind reconstruction.
Assessing predictive models of solar activity.
Forcing of planetary atmosphere and climate.
Impact on human exploration and interplanetary missions.

ISWAT - International Space Weather Action Teams

Join forces to advance space weather understanding and capabilities to alert and shield society!